Great thoughts from a data driven capper

Odds for the second week of the 2015 playoffs, presented from the home team’s point of view:

Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Carolina Panthers	Seattle Seahawks	-1.713	0.153	-12.7
Arizona Cardinals	Green Bay Packers	-0.001	0.500	0.0
Denver Broncos	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.437	0.608	3.2
New England Patriots	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.563	0.363	-4.2

Last week the system went 3-1 and perhaps would have gone 4-0 if after the Burflict interception, Cincinnati had just killed three plays and kicked a field goal.

The system currently gives Seattle a massive advantage in the playoffs. It says that Green Bay/Arizona is effectively an even match up, and that both the AFC games are pretty close. It favors Denver in their matchup, and the Chiefs in theirs.

One last comment about last week’s games. The Cincinnati-Pitt game was the most depressing playoff game I’ve…

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Sports Betting and Stock Market Investing: Examining the Parallels | Larry Alton

Posted on December 15, 2015 by bucklebackjack

Gambling and investing are similar in nature. To judge one and to praise the other is hypocritical. Instead of shaming sports betting, and calling for its demise, investors should begin to look toward expert gamblers to gather insights into what makes them so successful.

Source: Sports Betting and Stock Market Investing: Examining the Parallels | Larry Alton

Chalk – Late Alabama Crimson Tide TD hurts Vegas; gambling weekend recap

Posted on November 30, 2015 by bucklebackjack

David Purdum gives a recap of the weekend’s action from the gambling world’s perspective, including how a late Alabama TD run cost sportsbooks dearly and how the Chicago Bears saved Thanksgiving.

Source: Chalk – Late Alabama Crimson Tide TD hurts Vegas; gambling weekend recap

Best value bets for 2015 PGA Championship

Posted on August 13, 2015 by bucklebackjack

Need action on this weekend’s PGA Championship? The commish already fired in on Justin Rose at 18-1. ESPN has a perspective on who to take this weekend Best value bets for 2015 PGA Championship – Chalk.